“Beware the Ides of March,” the famous lines from Julius Caesar, foretell misfortune in mid March. It was on !5 March that Julius Caesar was assassinated by a group of rebellious senators led by Brutus and Cassius. These famous words spoken by a soothsayer served as a warning to Julius Caesar of impending gloom, which he ignored to his own peril. Just like words once spoken cannot be taken back, similarly certain events in the history of nations may inadvertently lead to regrettable unintended consequences. In the light of recent developments between India and Pakistan, the unintended launch of a supersonic cruise missile would continue to be debated upon till some viable solution is found to prevent such an incident happening in the future or it could lead to disastrous consequences. Given the state of Indo - Pak relations, the absence of dialogue since the last overtures by the present government in 2015 came to naught following the Pathankot terror attack in January 2016, there has been a steady downward spiral in bilateral relations.

On 09 Mar at approx 1843 hrs Pakistan Standard Time a supersonic missile crashed into a cold storage in Mian Channu village in Pakistan. Initial reports in the Pakistan media claimed that a private jet trainer aircraft had crashed and the pilot had ejected safely. There was no injury or loss of life and the area had been cordoned off by the Army. On 11 Mar 22, DG ISPR in a statement said that it was a supersonic flying object, most probably a missile that had been tracked by Pakistan flying at 40,000 feet before it fell down in a cold storage without any loss to life or property. The  Indian government issued a press release on the evening of 11 Mar 22, which stated that, “ On 09 Mar 22, in the course of a routine maintenance a technical malfunction led to the accidental firing of a missile.  The Government of India has taken a serious view and ordered a high level Court of Inquiry. It is learnt that the missile landed in an area of Pakistan. While the incident is deeply regrettable, it is also a matter of relief that there has been no loss of life due to the accident.” 

Public statements by both the governments, in India as well as Pakistan took time to come, but it would be reasonable to assume that existing hotlines between the two countries must have been used immediately in the aftermath of the firing. The restraint and maturity used by the leadership in both the countries appears to be commendable so far. This however cannot be taken for granted and a small incident in the future could lead to a conflagration with bitter consequences. The need for dialogue cannot be undermined and much more needs to be done by both the governments to facilitate the same. The present conflict between Russia and Ukraine serves as a classic example of what could be the consequences, wherein innocent citizens pay the price for the absence of dialogue and lack of trust between the leaders of nations. While parallels cannot be drawn between Russia - Ukraine and India - Pakistan, the pandering to domestic constituencies must be calibrated keeping national interest foremost. In times of crises, neither nations nor international institutions, in their present format, could be relied upon to prevent conflict in case the situation goes out of control inadvertently. This fact has been corroborated time and again in all the conflicts that our country has faced since independence, as also the present war in Ukraine which is in its third week wreaking havoc and destruction, despite multiple meetings and resolutions of the United Nations Security Council

There are no substitutes to hard as well as soft power and no nation can ill afford one at the cost of the other. There also is little merit in external dependence for the nation’s security needs and therefore India has already started the long march to self sufficiency or ‘Atma Nirbharta.’ The journey ahead  will no doubt be arduous and painstaking and it is important to not lose focus and stay on course. What is important, however, is the fact that situations and conflicts in the interim have to be managed in the neighborhood, as any conflict would not only extract a heavy toll on lives lost, but also set the nation back by a few years if not decades. The continuity of dialogue therefore becomes important in the Indo - Pak scenario. Whether ‘dialogue’ stalls over Kashmir or terrorism, as has happened in the past may not be as important as the need to continue the same and make renewed efforts to build mutual trust in the present scenario. Fifteen rounds of military to military talks with China since the Eastern Ladakh crisis two years ago may not have yielded the desired results, but they have certainly precluded another clash. 

Crises may pose threats to nations, but they also provide opportunities. The famous quote by William Shakespeare, in ‘Julius Caesar’ could not be more appropriate for India, when Brutus talks to Cassisus telling him, “ There is a tide in the affairs of men. Which, taken at the flood leads on to fortune; omitted all the voyage of their life is bound in miseries. On such a full sea are we now afloat, and we must take the current when it serves, or lose our ventures.”  India and Pakistan would do well to “Beware the Ides of March” and seize upon this opportunity to make amends to past mistakes and steer their nations towards peace and prosperity.