As the attention of the world gets riveted to the impending conflict in Eastern Europe over Ukraine we must also take time to reflect on our region as we approach the third anniversary of IAF’s cross border Balakot strike. Code named ‘Operation Bandar’ (Monkey)  in the early hours of 26 Feb 19, as people in India and Pakistan were fast asleep, 12 Mirages took off from India and crossed the border to carry out a punitive strike on a Jaish-e-Mohammed facility in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa region of Pakistan.  Carried out in retaliation to the deadly Pulwama terrorist attack in which forty CRPF jawans were martyred the terse statement from the MEA stated, “ In an intelligence led operation in the early hours of today, India struck the biggest training camp of JeM in Balakot. In this operation a very large number of terrorists, trainers, senior commanders and groups of jihadis who were being trained for fidayeen action were eliminated.” India for the first time carried out a bold manoeuvre justifying it as a non-military pre-emptive action in the face of imminent danger as credible intelligence pointed towards more fidayeen attacks that were being planned. The intention of the government was clearly and unequivocally conveyed to Pakistan and the world that it would no longer resort to dialogue with a nation that repeatedly failed to live up to its promises made in 2004 that Pakistan would not allow its soil or territory under its control to be used for terrorism against India. The world opinion was in favour of India while Pakistan made attempts to deny the damage, claiming that the attacks only destroyed some trees and that there was no loss of life. This plausible deniability, an oft repeated tactic by the ISPR machinery in Pakistan was once again in full display, as it had been in the past during the Kargil intrusion which was initially blamed on militants and Kashmiri freedom fighters. 

The jury is still out on the number and scale of casualties that took place in the early hours of 26 Feb 19, enough water has flown under the bridge since then. Pakistan has been reeling under economic pressure with repeated requests for a bail out from the IMF and World Bank, the nation continues to double its debt every five years.  Inflation levels are at a record high, with a huge fiscal deficit and balance of payment crisis there is bound to be social unrest and disillusionment with the current government which came to power ostensibly with the promise of making a ‘Naya Pakistan.’ With the United States exit from Afghanistan, brokered to a large extent by Pakistan, it’s honeymoon with the Taliban is getting sour by the day with reports of repeated clashes along the Durand line. With little or no financial support, lack of international recognition and a deteriorating law and order situation with poor governance the Taliban regime is no longer the fairy tale ally that Pakistan had wished for. Illegal sale of arms seized from the departing American forces has given a fresh impetus to this business which will only fuel further unrest in the region. It has been more than six months since the US Forces left Afghanistan, an event that drew widespread opprobrium at the time, and has been long forgotten in this era of instant and immediate concerns.

For China whose much touted ‘higher than the mountains and deeper than the seas’ bond with Pakistan has continued to prosper and grow, the US withdrawal from Afghanistan poses its own challenges. China needs to remain vigilant to the spread of terror and militancy with the increasing clout of the TIP and the TTP coupled with the Uyghur unrest in the Xinjiang region. These pose significant risks to  China’s  investments in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. China’s strategic alliance with Pakistan that has stood the test of time will certainly be tested in the near future, with the perilous situation in the neighbourhood after the Taliban take over of Afghanistan and the disillusionment within Pakistan with its deteriorating economic situation.

Investments in relationships and policies when done with vested and parochial interests will never pay dividends. Pakistan’s policy of fomenting terrorism through its soil, China’s alliance with Pakistan as a hedge against India, Pakistan’s support to the Taliban for securing strategic depth and the American partnership with Pakistan to exert influence over Afghanistan have all ensured that the chickens have finally come home to roost. “Hoist with his own petard”; the proverbial phrase by William Shakespeare in his famous play Hamlet could not be more apt for the countries concerned.

After India’s rap on Pakistani knuckles three years ago there has been a discernible downward trend in infiltration from across the border as well as terror attacks / incidents. India’s diplomatic heft and its military capability with the induction of Rafale fighter aircraft with specialist stand- off precision weapons has only increased since then. The last Fire Power Display (FPD) carried out by the IAF was two days after the deadly Pulwama terrorist attack. This year’s FPD is being carried out on 07 Mar 22 where the might of the IAF with all its armour would be on display, to be witnessed by the President, the Prime Minister and other dignitaries. Should this lull us into complacency? Certainly not as the powder must be kept dry at all times and varied innovative options must be considered and debated because cold, calculative and decisive actions incorporating surprise and deception will only pay dividends and ensure that national security is not compromised. Only time will tell whether the monkey of cross border terrorism is finally off India’s back.